While there are still a integrate of economies in a segment where a pathogen still seems to be rampaging, for a many part, lockdowns have got it underneath control, and now outlines a duration of reopening, a routine that is maddeningly slow, though directed during preventing renewed spikes in infection.
For many economies, a underside of activity will come in April. May is doubtful to be almost worse, and in some cases, where lockdowns have been eased, could see some growth. This, however, is expected to be really pedestrian.
And all of this comes opposite a backdrop of some renewed feeling on a trade front. We know how that went final time – USDCNY streamer neatly higher, and boring currencies like a KRW with it, while a stronger USD threatens a fortitude of EM stream comment currencies, IDR, INR and PHP.
Pit that opposite a ubiquitous bent to demeanour for certain developments – rumours of vaccine swell for example, that will expostulate flows behind to EM currencies, and we have all a makings for some really flighty banking moves ahead. That increasing volatility, rather than any clever directional call, seems a many reasonable near-term forecast.